Colorado House Passes Standard Capacity Magazine Ban HB 1224; Updates: Background Check Debate HB1229

CO HB 1224 was passed with a voice vote in the Colorado House this afternoon, by volume of the shouts, not by number of votes.

They’re still pushing other bans here.

Looks like Magpul will probably be moving, and so will Alfred Manufacturing, unless the Colorado Senate blocks it… which is looking highly unlikely.

Update: Denver Post:

After about 6 hours of debate, members of the Colorado House on Friday afternoon gave preliminary approval of a bill to banning high-capacity ammunition magazines.

“An overreaching majority of Coloradans support limiting these high-capacity ammunition magazines and it’s our job in the legislature to implement the will of the people,” said House assistant Majority Leader Dan Pabon, D-Denver.

Republicans could force a roll call vote later today on the bill, otherwise a final House vote will be taken on Monday.

The vote came after Republicans implored members to vote against what they called a “flawed” measure that would infringe on Second Amendment rights and kill jobs.

“It’s not good for Colorado and I urge that we do what’s right and kill this bill,” said House Minority Leader Mark Waller, R-Colorado Springs.

They’re currently making it so the government has to get involved in every firearm sale, and that so much as a loan of a firearm requires a transfer form – debating HB 1229, which mandates background checks.

As of 3:30 MST, Representative Polly Lawrence just found out that she can’t loan someone a gun without becoming a criminal… and the ban on loaning firearms just passed as of 3:33 MST by voice vote and laughter from the Democrats.

Update: Representative Priola (R) on the floor as of 4:43 MST:

“I’m going to plan my next trip to Detroit… because they seem to have solved all the ills of the world.

Where are the bill sponsors. No one’s here? The bill sponsors are not here.

Where’d they go?

Don’t they know this is what they’re supposed to do? To discuss legislation…”

Background check bill sponsors walked off.  They aren’t even there to support their own bill.

Update 2: Representative Wilson (R) just pointed out as of 4:55 MST that the ATF form 4473 means that anyone who uses marijuana can’t pass a background check.  Therefore anyone who has a legal gun in Colorado who smokes wouldn’t be able to pass a background check, and anyone who can’t pass a background check can’t prove that they’ve ever passed a background check… so their rights may be forfeit.

Update 3: 5:06 MST – Representative Gardner (R) just got Representative Labuda (D) to say that an unassembled firearm isn’t a firearm: “It’s not a firearm if it’s in pieces”, and that it doesn’t require a background check.  Ergo, all you have to do is field strip your AR and you can sell it without violating the law.  It makes the law meaningless.

Update 4: 5:22 MST – Gardner’s amendment to prevent FFL dealers from being forced to do background checks lost.  It was a Republican amendment, and wasn’t done by voice, it was done by head count until it was voted down.  Colorado has a sham government.

Obama and the Minimum Wage

From the NYT:

WASHINGTON — President Obama called on Congress to raise the federal minimum wage to $9 an hour from $7.25 and to automatically adjust it with inflation, a move aimed at increasing the earnings of millions of cooks, janitors, aides to the elderly and other low-wage workers.

And it will do nothing to help anyone looking for a job.

The White House said that the move would have profoundly positive effects for low-income families without unduly burdening businesses or raising the unemployment rate. It cited research showing “no detectable employment losses from the kind of minimum wage increases we have seen in the United States.”

There are always losses as the cost of hiring employees goes up.  Thus employers hire fewer employees, and employees at entry level don’t get the skills they need to get the next rung up on the ladder.

The White House also pointed to companies like Costco, the retail discount chain, and Stride Rite, a children’s shoe seller, that have previously supported increasing the minimum wage as a way to reduce employee turnover and improve workers’ productivity.

As employers, they can increase wages on their own.  This is what Costco did.

As Costco Senior Vice President Jeff Long said recently in support of increasing New York state’s minimum wage, “At Costco, we know good wages are good business. We keep our overhead low while still paying a starting wage of $11 an hour. Our employees are a big reason why our sales per square foot is almost double that of our nearest competitor. Instead of minimizing wages, we know it’s a lot more profitable for the long term to minimize employee turnover and maximize employee productivity and commitment, product value, customer service and company reputation.”

And they’re also a very large business.  Y’know what a raise in the minimum wage does to them?  Nothing.  Y’know what happens to their competitors?  Their competitors have to spend more on employees.  It creates a barrier to entry.  This prevents their competitors from entering the marketplace with the advantages of being able to hire lower-wage workers.  This prevents unskilled workers from getting a stepping-stone job.

This makes life easier for Costco, who get to increase the expenses of their competitors through governmental fiat.  This is crony capitalism for Costco.

It hurts the people it’s supposed to “help”, driving them to unemployment and dependency on the government and right into the hands of political parties that will give them handouts.  The special interests in this case are the big businesses who benefit from destruction of smaller businesses, and the government officials who benefit from manufacturing more unemployment to create more people dependent on government handouts.

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Gun Panic Economics

From Valley Guns, via TheTruthAboutGuns:

Smith & Wesson: Running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day, mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.

RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1.

Remington – Maxed out!

Armalite: Maxed out.

DPMS: Can’t get enough parts to produce any more product.

COLT: Production runs increasing weekly…bottle necked by Bolt carrier’s.

LWRC: Making only black guns, running at full capacity …can’t get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand, but are running 30-45 days behind.

AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags. Do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

RELOADERS:

ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra’s for reloading purposes. It could be 6-9 months b/f things get caught up.

Provided government doesn’t create any more uncertainty in the market, things will be back to normal in 6 months.  If the government starts going after the industry, it’s going to do just what every other industry would, and demand will outpace supply as supply is crushed by dictatorial fiat.

Of course, that’s what would-be tyrants want.

Powerline’s Out of Ammo… Because They Didn’t Buy It Cheap And Stack It Deep

Seems John Hinderaker at Powerline was a bit surprised this week by something he’s already covered.  Recently:

I really, really wanted to shoot today, but wasn’t able to. Why, you might ask? Was I backed up with work? Nope. Did I have a long list of chores to do, to stay in my wife’s good graces? Nope. I was free as a bird. But I couldn’t shoot because, with the exception of 100 rounds of 22LR and the loaded 9 mm magazines that I keep at home for purposes of self-defense, I was out out of ammo.

Nor was I alone. The shelves here in Minnesota are empty.

…

So what is going on? In part, certainly, the perception of a potential shortage due to the policies of the Obama administration has led to the reality of a shortage, as everyone started to stock up. I can understand the mentality: if I wandered into a gun store and found that they had just put 1,000 9 mm rounds on the shelf, I would buy them all. But does that fully explain what is happening?

To a very large degree, yes.  Remember, this is what 1100 rounds of .22s looks like:

A few years ago, each box would run about $10.  Today, they each run about $20.  So altogether, you can pick up 1100 rounds of .22lr for about $40, if you can find it.

1000 rounds of 9mm isn’t that big, either.

That’s 500 there, at about 7-years-ago prices, as compared to a 550 box of .22lr and Indiana Jones.  Just double the stack, and that’s 1100 and 1000 of each.

You can still find a few rounds of .380, .40 and even .45 caliber bullets, along with more exotic varieties, but the most popular ammunition–22LR and 9 mm–is sold out everywhere. The shelves are literally bare. Every now and then someone gets in a small shipment; a friend told me that a local Dick’s Sporting Goods got some 9 mm bullets in yesterday. They were gone almost instantly.

I’ll assume here that he means ammunition where he says bullets, and chalk it up to the desire of English speakers to use different terms rather than repeat the same one over and over again.  There is a difference between a cartridge (round) and a projectile (bullet).  Reloaders are the folks who are running into bullet, powder (to a lesser degree) and primer (to a greater degree) shortages.  Also, this may be a regional shortage, as .45 is by no means unpopular.  .380 ammo was in very high demand over the last few years as Ruger’s LCP took off, driving a large part of the concealed carry market to .380 – and emptying shelves.  .380 is only around now because supply finally caught up with demand.

Hinderaker looks to be an example of one of the awakening gun owners who are just now still realizing the gravity of the situation by the readily apparent economic situation.  A month ago, he said this while writing “Barack Obama, Ammo Salesman“:

There is something seriously wrong when Americans have to stand in line to buy ammo. But I can confirm that the shortage is spreading rapidly. My son and I went shooting at the GanderMountain Store in Lakeville, our usual haunt. I was running a little low on ammunition and thought I would pick up a box of 9 mm ammo on the way in. Forget it. Not a single 9 mm bullet in the store. No 22LR either, if you can imagine that.

Totally can imagine that.  The line is an indicator of the market – and shouldn’t be a surprise.

When we were done I tried the Fleet Farm across the highway, too: not a single 9 mm or 22LR bullet to be had.

Mr. Hinderaker, you know how I know you don’t shoot much?  You went to buy a box.  A box.  Even the biggest box of Winchester white box 9mm is only 100 rounds.  For serious shooters, that’s not much to go through in a very short period of time.  Doing just a few drills will burn through that quick.  It also doesn’t supply you for more than a trip.  Serious shooters know this creed:  Buy it cheap, stack it deep.

You know the second reason I know you don’t shoot much?   You went to Gander Mountain before you went to Fleet Farm.  Unless your local Gander Mountain is an aberration, it probably pales in comparison to Fleet Farm.  Also, in the last month, Mills Fleet Farm went so far as to make a long pro-2A video as an open letter to their government officials from Minnesota.  Given those two choices, I’d always go to Fleet Farm (and have).

That Fleet Farm is out of ammo is a pretty big sign, but it’s also indicative of the customer base.  Folks who go to Fleet Farm already know to buy it cheap and stack it deep.  As one example, Fleet Farm used to (and probably still does, occasionally) carry milsurp rifles like Russian Mosin-Nagants, for which the cheapest ammo can be had by buying Eastern European 440-round tins (spam cans).  If you spend 80 bucks you have enough ammo to last for at least a few trips to the range.  As a non-gun related example, Fleet Farm sells everything from military surplus to snacks in large amounts at cheap prices – and that’s indicative of a more thrifty mindset.  It’s like comparing Sam’s Club or Costco to a corner store – they may have the same product, but one has paper towels in 2-packs, the other in 20-packs at a discount.  Same financial principles apply to ammo.

Most Americans, and certainly Minnesotans, are familiar with this image, and know exactly what to buy the most of:

The issue is that people today are buying cheap and stacking deep – the market for the last decade has taught them.

Folks who’ve been firearms enthusiasts for a long time have their own supply from which to shoot.  That’s why they buy in bulk.  The rest of the nation, seeing that there have been shortages, is now catching on.  You don’t buy 1000 rounds of .45 because you’re going to go fight the Taliban with your 1911.  You buy it because every range trip is 100-200 rounds, and stores don’t always carry ammo.  Metals prices fluctuate, the dollar fluctuates against imported ammo (which can also be outright banned by import restrictions), surplus ammo dries up as supply is exhausted, and inflation drives prices up.  There are other economic factors as well – in the current case, there’s a much, much greater demand than there is supply.  Folks who shoot a lot have seen this in the last decade.

If you scroll back up to that slightly fuzzy image of Indiana Jones on the box of 500 9mm rounds, note the price.  Yes, that says $60 for 500.  That’d be $6/box.  You won’t find that price anymore, not even for cheap Russian Silver Bear.

Dick’s Sporting Goods used to have sales on Remington UMC 9mm ammo – brass cased, quality ammo – for $5/box as late as 2006.   The skyrocketing metals prices of the mid-90s caused ammo to shoot up in price – and anyone who shot a lot, or though they might shoot later in life, even – knew to start buying.  Of course now they’re getting out of the firearm and ammo market as Dick’s has gone limp due to political pressure.

Hinderaker now says he’d buy 1000 rounds if he could find it.  He’s a casual shooter who’s now been taught a harsh lesson by the market.  He gets it now.  His casual attitude towards firearms as something that will always be there has changed with the market.  He’s well on the road to learning to buy it cheap, stack it deep.  Multiply his casual shooter realization times millions of gun owners and yes, you pretty much have the answer for the current ammo shortage.

On a slightly different note, Hinderaker mentioned this a month ago:

So, in our effort to be scrupulously fair to President Obama, we can no longer say that his policies have uniformly been catastrophic for the economy. No: from now on, we must admit that he has been an unprecedented boon to manufacturers of firearms and ammunition.

All Obama’s done is introduce uncertainty into the gun & ammo market.  People are buying because of uncertainty over governmental policies, inflation, metals prices, how international trade will mess with those prices, as well as concern for future governmental interference in the market (in violation of the Second Amendment), and so on.  That massive uncertainty has driven up demand, but also screwed up the supply side of the equation.  Manufacturers aren’t going to go out and start investing in new CNC machinery to provide more capacity.  They don’t know if they’re going to be driven out of business, have the banks they put their money in threatened, or have the banks freeze their assets entirely due to politics.

I know Hinderaker was joking there a bit, but looking at it seriously, it’s not a normal market boom at all.

Hinderaker finishes yesterday’s post with this:

How about the fact that government agencies are buying up billions of rounds? There have been lots of news reports and lots of rumors, but no clear explanation of why the federal government has invested so massively in ammunition–including the most popular civilian calibers–over the last year. One way or another, it seems that there is a story here. But for it to be pursued, we would need “reporters.” Remember them? Nah, that was a bygone era: you probably don’t.

This has been asked and answered a few times.  I’ll go back to my original answer here.  And I addressed the Social Security Adminstration’s ammo purchases here.  For the most part, it’s still the case.  Is it worth asking about, sure?  But is it necessarily sinister, no.  Is it enough to change the market dramatically?  I’d say somewhat, but I doubt it – even government agencies are having a hard time getting ammo, because their budgets are cut back, too.  Contracts made doesn’t necessarily mean contracts filled, either.  And US govt. agencies aren’t buying Wolf’s or Golden/Silver/Brown Bear.

Is there a story there?  Maybe.  Is it just a story of how “buy it cheap, stack it deep” works for everyone?  Probably.

Economic Facts and Fallacies with Thomas Sowell

Another good Hoover Institution video with Thomas Sowell.

Paul Krugman, Keynesian Idiot: Part 8

There was so much going on in the Second Amendment world that I skipped right on past Paul Krugman’s demand that we print a $1 trillion dollar platinum coin and then give it away saying “we paid off the debt!”

Andrew Wilkow over at the Blaze did a pretty good job of ridiculing Krugman for being such a Keynesian idiot, dissecting Krugman’s whole stance rather harshly.

Others just made fun of Krugman for the idea being stupid.  It’s gotta be hard as a progressive to find that even Jon Stewart is mocking you.

Of course, when Krugman’s not busy being a Keynesian idiot, sometimes he’s busy being an idiot Keynesian:

Way back when, Mike Konczal felicitously made that analogy to discuss the people who were calling for a rise in interest rates despite high unemployment and low inflation — a group at the time exemplified by Raghuram Rajan. For those who don’t read the classics, Calvinball is a sport in which you change the rules whenever you feel like it, very much including in the middle of games.

For those unfamiliar with the Austrian School of Economics, Friedrich A. Hayek and the rest, here’s one of the main tenets, taken in short short version from Wikipedia:

Proponents believe that a sustained period of low interest rates and excessive credit creation result in a volatile and unstable imbalance between saving and investment.

In his Prices and Production (1931), Hayek argued that the business cycle resulted from the central bank‘s inflationarycredit expansion and its transmission over time, leading to a capital misallocation caused by the artificially low interest rates.

Raghuram Rajan, who Krugman mocks, is actually making a very salient point (without comparing Krugman to Dagwood Bumstead demanding a bigger sandwich as more stimulus):

Clearly, someone is paying a price for ultra-low interest rates: the patient and uncomplaining saver. Interestingly, if traditional spenders such as firms and young households are unwilling or unable to take advantage of low interest rates, low rates could even hurt overall spending, because savers like retirees receive lower financial incomes and curtail spending.

This is not a heretical concern. As with any tax and subsidy, the net effect depends on whether those taxed cut back spending less than those subsidized. Economists have sensibly advocated that China raise the interest rates that it pays on bank deposits so that Chinese households earn more and consume more. Some Japanese now wonder whether their ultra-low interest-rate policy could be contractionary.

Equally worrisome are the distortions that easy money creates. Evidence from the recent crisis suggests that ultra-low rates prompted a wide range of portfolio adjustments, whereby Asian and Middle East central banks and funds ended up holding the safest low-interest securities, while the US and European financial sectors went on a risk-taking binge. History never repeats itself exactly, and those singed by fire do learn not to play with matches, but we should be aware that unnaturally low interest rates have consequences other than inflation.

Uncommon Knowledge: Thomas Sowell on the Vulgar Pride of Intellectuals

It’s a fascinating sit-down with a very wise man.

Around the 13:30 mark, there’s a very good summation of why the anointed intellectuals believe what they do so firmly, and reject the contrary.  There’s a huge ego component to it.

If you believe in free markets and traditional values and so forth, there’s no exultation that comes with it.  You’re just someone who believes in free markets and traditional values.  …  But if you believe in social justice and saving the environment, you are really something.  People with that viewpoint have a huge ego stake.  Empirical evidence is like gambling all of that on a roll of a dice.

History often proves the anointed intellectual leftist wrong, so they ignore it or rewrite it.  That’s why they get into education.  When science proves them wrong, science becomes subject to modification, and opinion trumps evidence – and any evidence that must be fabricated or changed to support the cause is completely acceptable.  Easy examples are Rathergate and Climategate.

By contrast, it’s difficult to be a cause-head who says “I don’t know what’s best for you, you do.”  It’s difficult to motivate people to a righteous cause of non-intervention in other’s lives.  If you’re out to save them from themselves, you have mission that lends itself easily to a holy crusade.  If you’re out to shrink the size of government and interference in their life so they can make the best decisions that their experience leads them to, you have a much more sophisticated argument, and a much more difficult job to motivate people – something that doesn’t lend itself to the same kind of political action.

You can’t do “fired up/ready to go” chants for that very well.

Eight – seven – six – five!  Everyone lead your own lives!

Four – three – two – one!  Let’s leave everyone alone!

Gun Ban Economics – Fort Worth, TX Cabela’s Today

Well, yesterday – Sunday the 27th.  Just another example of gun ban economics and what we’ve already been seeing.

Those racks were normally full of black rifles and such.

These shelves used to be full of ammunition.

The Pay-Per-Mile Tax Scheme

A few other nations have discussed it, some engage in it.  Now, the Obama administration, having increased CAFE standards to the point where cars are getting more dangerous rather than less dangerous, is looking at a pay-per-mile tax scheme.

An on-again, off-again move by the Obama administration to scrap the federal gas tax in favor of a pay-per-mile fee would boost the tab to Americans as high as 250 percent, raising their current tax of 18.4 cents a gallon to as high as 46 cents, according to a new government study.

But without a tax increase, said the Government Accountability Office study, the government’s highway fund is going to go dry. One reason the fund is going broke: President Obama’s push for fuel efficient cars has resulted in better mileage, and fewer stops at the pump.

They socially engineered you into doing what they wanted.  The public now drives more fuel-efficient cars.  But now they can’t get the money out of you, so they have to tax you a different way.  You lose by not being able to drive the car you want, and the “savings” you just got from that no-power econo-coffin they now take from you in taxes.

In a free system, people would buy the cars they want.  Everyone wants more fuel efficient vehicles and everyone wants to pay less for gas.  Some vehicles have fuel efficiency limits due to design; but regardless, everyone wants to pay less at the pump.  People would naturally favor fuel economy because that leaves them with more money to spend on other things they want.  The individual consumer knows whats best for them – not the government.

There’s something that goes unsaid in this next part that is the biggest part of the big problem:

The GAO study is just the latest review of federal spending that paints a grim picture of the nation’s infrastructure. Just keeping spending at current levels, the GAO said, would require a near doubling of the gas tax to 32 cents a gallon, and that would jump to as high as 46 cents should the federal government add spending to fix crumbling infrastructure and build new roads.

Key thing to remember: Justification of overinflated budgets.  Everyone has seen a road ripped up and repaved, then repaved again when it didn’t need it; or seen good roads ripped up while bad roads are ignored.

The government just social-engineered you into buying a car you didn’t want, or paying a gas-guzzler tax on a car you did.  Or if you did want the little econo-box (or live somewhere that one is practical), they’re telling you that your “good deed” isn’t enough – and they want more from you anyway.

Cabela’s Stands Up For The Second Amendment

Mills Fleet Farm took a stand the other day, now Cabela’s is taking a stand.  From Cabela’s facebook page:

Due to recent changes made by Reed Exhibitions regarding the Eastern Sports and Outdoor Show, Cabela’s will no longer sponsor this year’s event. After careful consideration regarding Cabela’s business practices, and the feelings of our customers, Cabela’s will, unfortunately, not have a presence at the Eastern Sports and Outdoor Show.

For those who missed it, the reason why is because Eastern Sports and Outdoor Show are the folks doing this:

The organizer of the annual Eastern Sports and Outdoor Show in Harrisburg apparently is banning so-called assault weapons from this year’s show.

Reed Exhibitions has informed some exhibitors — including Kinsey’s Outdoors in Mount Joy and The Sportsman’s Shop in New Holland, representatives of both stores said — that AR-style rifles and high-capacity ammunition magazines capable of holding 30 rounds or more may not be sold or displayed at the show, scheduled for Feb. 2-10 at the State Farm Show Complex on Cameron Street.

–

Alex Cameron, general manager of Kinsey’s, said he was told the ban was due to the “current political climate.”

Cabela’s may not have taken quite as hard-line of a stance as Mills Fleet Farm did, but it’s a pretty strong indicator when they opt out of a show because they know what they and their customers believe.  They’re taking a stand.