Years ago, Der Spiegel wrote about the Seven Phases of Al Qaeda’s plan as related to Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein. Long War Journal wrote about it as well. Beyond the first few stages, it was expected to be the ramblings of madman terrorist Seif al-Adel. It seemed the kind of plan that would easily be checked by intervention by the West, led by the US.
A short summary of the seven phases:
1. “The Awakening” – was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby “awakening” Muslims.
2. “Opening Eyes” – 2003-2006 – the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the “Islamic community.” Al Qaeda turns itself into a movement, recruiting and building an army in Iraq and bases in other Arab states.
3. “Arising and Standing Up” – 2007-2010 a focus on Syria with fighting units already built in Syria and Iraq.
4. Destabilization of the Middle East. 2010-2013. Al Qaeda will bring about the collapse of Arab governments, and AQ will steadily grow in strength.
5, Islamic State/Caliphate declared. 2013-2016. Weakened western influence will allow for an Islamic State to form.
6. “Total Confrontation” – 2016 on. The Caliphate will instigate the fight between believers and non-believers.
7. “Definitive Victory” – completed by 2020 with a two-year war. The rest of the world will be so beaten down by 1.5 billion Muslims that the Caliphate will succeed.
Phase 4 was completed by the “Arab Spring”. And Phase 5 is now complete, as ISIS has declared an Islamic State.
According to Isis’s chief spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the declaration of the “restoration of the caliphate” was made after a meeting of the group’s Shura Council. In recent weeks, Isis has captured large areas of western and northern Iraq and for two years has held parts of Syria, imposing a harsh interpretation of Islamic law and in many cases, killing large numbers of opposition Shia Muslims.
Adnani said all jihadist organisations must now offer up their support to Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who has been declared Caliph of the new state.
The Long War Journal in 2005 wrote this:
The United States will not allow another Islamic state to fall to al Qaeda’s ideologues. The lesson of September 11 serves as a reminder of what happened when Afghanistan became a sanctuary and de facto al Qaeda state.
The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
The Long War Journal wasn’t able to forsee Obama or Obama’s retreat from the Middle East.
The Caliphate had smaller plans:
And those “moderate” Muslim rebels Obama thinks will magically appear to stop the Caliphate? They’re being crucified:
Meanwhile, some are saying that ISIS is a paper tiger that only accomplishes anything out of fear, and others are saying that ISIS only exists because of Manbearpig.
To borrow from a speech by Lara Logan two years ago:
You’re not listening to what the people who are fighting you say about this fight. In your arrogance, you think you write the script, but you don’t.