Preferences, Pluralities and Primary Elections

Posted: February 25, 2016 by ShortTimer in 2016 Elections

Part of the discussion about the 2016 Republican primaries recently has been about how Trump is “winning”.

Except he’s not really winning the party, he’s winning pluralities.

Right now a doom & gloom poll for Texas says Cruz and Trump are almost tied, with Rubio behind them a bit, and Kasich and Carson and the rest trailing in single digits.

Thing is, much like the last “wins” Trump has, they’re basically pluralities.  There was a piece I read a couple weeks back about the idea of getting a candidate that almost no one likes, and I think that’s what’s coming if we end up with Trump.

I’ve already said my piece on him, and I stand by it.  Beyond the superficial personality issues, politically he’s not conservative, libertarian, or anything but an East Coast NY leftist crony according to his own record.

What should be a clear indicator is that he made a business of running casinos… a business which by it’s very construct exists to swindle people out of their money while giving them fanciful promises.

Thing is, if losers like Kasich (who no one likes), and unfortunate losers like Carson (who everyone likes, but very few people think could be president anymore) stay in the race crowding the ballot, they dilute the vote.  With Cruz and Rubio running head to head, and often for the same voters, they lose because they split their own vote.

Consider the numbers listed in the HotAir link above concerning Oklahoma:

Trump 29%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 20%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%

29% support… and that means 71% are opposed to Trump.  7 out of 10 do not want him.  He’s good at manipulating the media, and he has a lot of vocal supporters who either haven’t looked at his history, or simply have chosen not to care because they’re swept up in the moment of “winning”… at 30%.

Finally, from Mike V at Sipsey Street Irregulars:

An anonymous future Trump chump takes issue with my post Meanwhile, the Trump cult of personality claims the reputation of another unprincipled useful idiot, saying “Keep bitching about Trump and you better get ready to say hello to president Hilary.”

My reply:

Hillary will never make it past the indictments. The Obamanoids are already pimping without any subtlety the Biden-Warren “savior ticket.” This I predicted some time ago. Hillary will be a footnote to the history about to be manipulated. When that happens, look for Warren in particular to attack Trump’s vicious and shameful treatment of women. He makes Bill Clinton look positively saint-like in comparison. In addition, his appetites for other people’s property will be put on vivid display by the collectivist media machine — eminent domain here, his rapacious treatment of the Scots who sit in the way of his golf course across the Atlantic, his sucking up to various dictatorial regimes to build stuff — you name it. They will make him look like a cross between Simon Legree and the robber barons, which is uncomfortably close to the truth. (The moron actually let himself be videoed sitting out front of a Scottish home owned by a couple of pensioners telling the camera that he doesn’t give a shit about their distress — this is on a full length documentary that is being held until the moment he becomes the GOP candidate.)

The failed Trump run will in the end look like a set-up stalking horse for the Dems when that happens and YOU, not I (for I will be dead by then) will be stuck with the death of the Republic and civil war. I have endorsed no one, including Cruz, but that doesn’t mean I don’t see the future of this about-to-spectacularly-fail demagogue clearly. Believe in Trump’s so-called principles if you like, but you might as well throw in devotion to Santa Claus, the tooth fairy and the notion that unicorns shit golden skittles. Look in the mirror then and you will see a Trump chump staring back in regret.

There’s a little more at Sipsey Street, and while I’m not so sure about a Warren-Biden ticket, just consider a Sanders ticket versus Trump and how it would play out.

Sanders, an avowed socialist who basically never held a job in his life and honeymooned in the Soviet Union, is someone opposed to taking little old ladies’ houses, while Trump is on record as actively wanting to use cronies in government to take a little old lady’s house so he could tear it down and build a limo parking lot for his casino.

He’s like a poorly written Disney villain, or maybe a bad guy from a PG rated teen summer movie, where the evil developer wants to tear down the teen rec center/ski lodge/orphanage to build something gaudy, terrible, destructive to the community, and that would be objectively worse.

That’s not someone to celebrate, and that’s certainly not an embodiment of any kind of conservative/libertarian/American principles.  Well, unless you’re Sanders and wanting to point out the evils of capitalism (even though it’s really the evils of cronyism).

Update: Via National Review:

Surprise! Donald Trump is a rank hypocrite on immigration.

Per the New York Times: Donald J. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach describes itself as “one of the most highly regarded private clubs in the world,” and it is not just the very-well-to-do who want to get in. Since 2010, nearly 300 United States residents have applied or been referred for jobs as waiters, waitresses, cooks and housekeepers there. But according to federal records, only 17 have been hired.

Or, put another way, Trump has deliberately chosen to hire foreign workers to fill those jobs that “Americans just won’t do.” 17 out of 300? That’s 5.6 percent. 17 out of 500? That’s 3.4 percent. Bad!

So what’s Trump’s excuse? That’s he’s a businessman and that these are the realities on the ground? That, I’m afraid, won’t wash. When Disney behaved like this, there was a loud and sustained outcry from . . . well, no less than Donald Trump himself. In an interview with Breitbart, Trump argued that Disney should be forced to rehire any Americans it had overlooked or replaced.

…the good people of America should realize that they’re being duped by a bad man who doesn’t give a hoot about anybody other than himself.

I don’t like wasting electrons on Trump, but his actions are directly contrary to his words, and directly contrary to the wishes of the great majority of his supporters.

When somebody abuses immigrant visa programs to bring in cheap foreign labor while ignoring American workers, to still have supporters means there’s either ignorance (incidental or willful) or a willingness to overlook and ignore flaws that would be inexcusable in other candidates… and in fact their chosen candidate doesn’t excuse that in others.

This is why the numbers are running at 70% against within his own party (well, his party for the last year or so).  There are still people in the field diluting it and we the voters, both primary voters and national voters – for those who remain independent in closed primary states – end up with a candidate that no one really likes.

We used to end up with the worst establishment candidates because they’d garner a plurality while opposition would be split, now we might be ending up with the worst anti-establishment candidate because the anti-establishment vote is split.

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